Sit back and relax — The Future of Autonomous Driving is finally here
#10 of my tech predictions for 2023
Autonomous driving technology has been one of the most anticipated advancements in the automotive industry over the past decade.
It has the potential to transform so many industries and our daily lives by making transportation safer, more efficient, and more accessible to everyone: Transportation as a Service.
I have explored the current state of autonomous driving and driverless cars across the United States and China. So let’s take a look at how far we have come.
According to the US Census, 130 million people in the US alone spend an hour sitting in their cars commuting to work and back. Every day. That’s 130 million hours in traffic, amounting to 15.000 years of largely wasted human capital — every day.
But that’s not the worst statistic: Every day, about 3.700 people get killed in traffic worldwide. That equals a Boing 737 crashing every hour, year around!
So, it’s fair to say that there is massive room for improvement when it comes to driving.
Tesla FSD: 400.000 car owners can´t be wrong
Tesla has long been regarded as the major player in the autonomous driving space. Their Autopilot system is one of the most advanced ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistant Systems) systems on the market today. It can handle tasks like lane changes, parking, and even navigating on and off-ramps on the highway. However, their technology is not yet fully autonomous and still requires a driver to be alert and ready to take control at any time.
Tesla recently released a new version of their Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, called FSD beta v11, which promises to bring their vehicles much closer to full autonomy. The latest version includes features like “city streets” and “autosteer on city streets,” allowing Tesla vehicles to navigate complex urban environments. Even though the technology is still in beta testing and requires the driver to be ready to take over at any time, it is a significant step forward in autonomous driving. Currently, more than 400.000 vehicles are beta testing FSD in the US, and the results are awe-inspiring
If you want to see a real-world example of the quality of self-driving with the newest version of the algorithm, then check this YouTube video:
Driverless Taxis are a thing now
Cruise, a self-driving car company owned by GM, is currently leading the way in commercial autonomous driving technology. The company runs a commercially available self-driving taxi service in San Francisco, Phoenix, and Austin.
These driverless taxis are operated through an app similar to Uber or Lyft. Passengers can request a ride, and a fully autonomous vehicle will arrive to pick them up and take them to their destination. The company plans to expand the service to many other cities.
At SXSW in March, the CEO of Cruise, Kyle Vogt (former co-founder of Twitch), took the stage to explain why he thinks that they will win: “The status of FSD today makes a lot of people uncertain because they have to be ready to step in, all the time. After a few minutes in our self-driven cars, people get it. And 92% want to come back”, he said, and continued: “The big question here is: Are you working for your car or are the car working for you.”
Cruise is about to launch their new GM produced car: Origin — a small bus-like vehicle that will transport up to six people without a driver. The production cost is estimated to be $50,000 at scale. The car is all-electric and designed to have a lifespan of 1,600,000 km.
Cruise uses LiDAR technology for navigation and must map the areas thoroughly before opening up for their driverless cars. Tesla, on the other hand, uses regular cameras and no mapping, making the assignment much more complicated but cheaper in the long run. The verdict is still out about which strategy will win.
Meanwhile, In China, things are moving equally fast. Baidu is leading the charge in autonomous driving technology. The company has been testing its self-driving cars on public roads since 2013. Their service is called Apollo Go, and they have already passed 1 million autonomous rides.
In addition, they recently obtained government permits to operate fully driverless services across multiple cities in China, including Beijing, Wuhan, and Chongqing. Tencent and Alibaba, two of China’s largest tech companies, have invested heavily in autonomous driving technology.
While the technology behind autonomous driving is advancing rapidly, significant challenges still need to be addressed before driverless cars become a reality. Of course, safety is the most critical concern, and companies are working hard to ensure that their autonomous vehicles can operate safely on the road. But eventually, we will have to discuss what we demand from this new technology. So far, the goal has been almost zero tolerance, but with more than 12.000 being injured in traffic every day, in the US alone, we will have to decide on a tipping point for when autonomous driving is so much safer that we will have to accept it.
Another challenge is creating a regulatory framework to handle new technology and cars without steering wheels! Governments need to ensure that there are rules in place to address accidents and liability issues. There are also concerns about the impact that driverless cars could have on jobs in not just the transportation industry but in a lot of other enterprises being affected.
Going from driving to being driven will be one of the biggest transitions in our time
- Kyle Vogt
Despite these challenges, the future of autonomous driving looks bright. As technology advances and becomes more widespread, we can expect a significant reduction in accidents and traffic congestion. Driverless cars will also provide more efficient and affordable transportation to people who may not be able to afford a car or cannot drive due to physical disabilities.
Your driverless car is arriving
In the near future, we can expect to see more self-driving cars on the road, and the technology will become more advanced and affordable. When people start having successful first-person experiences with self-driving cars, the rumor will spread fast, and I predict that the transformation will come quickly once this happens.
As technology continues to improve, we may eventually see a world where all cars are fully autonomous. Where people sit back and relax while the car drives them to their destination. Taking a break while being transported.
The state of autonomous driving and driverless cars is rapidly evolving. Companies like Cruise and Tesla are making significant strides in the development of self-driving cars, but don´t forget China where substantial investments in the technology are being made.
While challenges still need to be addressed, I predict that by the time we leave 2023, no one will doubt that this game-changing technology will be a reality soon.
