2023 — A year of challenges and AI breakthroughs
An update on my tech predictions for last year
By Tim Frank Andersen
2023 was a challenging year with war both in Ukraine and Israel, with inflation and skyrocketing interest rates.
But 2023 will most likely be remembered as the year of the big AI breakthrough. A year ago, I made my ten tech predictions for 2023.
Now is the time for an update and a count of which ones were home runs: 🎯, close calls: ⚠️ or totally off base: ⛔️
🎯 Goodbye Creators — Hello Algo’s
Boy, was this the hot topic of the year. The level of improvement, we have seen over the 12 months was staggering. Adobe Firefly, Dall-E 3, and Midjourney 5 took image creation to the next level. And combined with the upscaler from Magnific, even professional photographers were forced to get into the game.
The release of Midjourney 6 in late December will even add text to the equation. This will have an even greater impact on the creative industry.
If you are a creator and haven’t started your reskilling towards AI tools, you better get started, because we haven’t even seen anything yet!
Here’s a link to the original article.
🎯 Matter — The SmartHome solution we’ve been waiting for
The IoT standard Matter emerged as a game-changer in 2023 with the adoption from major tech giants like Amazon, Google, Samsung, and Apple. The adoption is paving the way for a more seamless and integrated smart home experience.
Matter’s most notable achievement in 2023 was the release of Matter 1.2 in October, which expanded the scope of the standard to encompass nine new device categories, including refrigerators, robot vacuums, and air purifiers. This expansion significantly enhanced the flexibility and control available to users, enabling them to manage an even wider range of appliances from a single platform.
Beyond device compatibility, Matter made strides in bolstering the security of smart home ecosystems. The standard incorporated robust security features, such as device authentication and encryption, to safeguard user privacy and prevent unauthorized access. These enhancements were crucial in building trust in the smart home industry and encouraging wider adoption of connected devices.
Looking towards 2024, Matter is poised for further growth, with expanded device coverage, advanced security protocols, and a thriving developer ecosystem. These advancements will solidify Matter’s position as the cornerstone of a truly unified and secure smart home ecosystem, empowering users with seamless control and innovation.
Here’s a link to the original article.
⛔️ The LiDAR Revolution
The automotive industry continued to lead the integration of LiDAR technology. The technology is expected to reach a revenue of US $3.9 billion in 2028 for this use case alone.
LiDAR is being used in space. And even underwater.
It is being applied to precision agriculture, allowing farmers to map their fields, assess soil conditions, and optimize crop yields.
LiDAR sensors have been integrated into drones, enabling them to capture high-resolution 3D maps of areas that are difficult or dangerous to access by foot.
The technology keeps advancing by reaching higher resolution while lowering the cost and size of the lidar sensor.
I still think It is an extremely powerful technology with so many potential applications and possible impacts down the road, only a handful of which are known at the moment. But the true value of LiDAR hasn’t been realized yet and it did not happen in 2023 either.
Here’s a link to the original article.
🎯 Meet your future Robo Butler
Another home run! We witnessed significant advancements in the field of robotics, with humanoid robots edging closer to becoming a commonplace reality.
Tesla’s unveiling of Optimus 2.0 in October, marked a pivotal moment, showcasing the company’s commitment to developing this groundbreaking technology.
Agility Robotics also made a significant contribution by launching its first production factory, with an initial capacity of manufacturing 10,000 of their humanoid robot: Digit per year. Amazon has already started testing these new co-workers in their warehouse. This move further solidified the growing commercialization of humanoid robots and their potential impact on various industries.
Meanwhile, China’s ambitious plan to mass-produce humanoid robots by 2025 underscored the industry’s momentum and the recognition of their transformative potential. This endeavor is driven by the belief that humanoid robots can revolutionize sectors such as healthcare, logistics, and customer service.
As we move into 2024, I expect the development of humanoid robots to gain even more traction, driven by advancements in dexterity, artificial intelligence, and affordability. These developments will pave the way for wider adoption of humanoid robots, expanding their reach and impact across various fields.
Here’s a link to the original article.
⚠️ Kiss your passwords goodbye!
In 2023, the FIDO Alliance finally unveiled Passkeys, a new authentication standard that aims to eliminate the need for traditional passwords. This groundbreaking innovation received widespread support from major tech companies, including Apple, Google, and Microsoft.
Passkeys utilize a combination of cryptographic keys and biometric authentication to provide secure and seamless sign-in experiences. Unlike passwords, which are easily compromised, Passkeys are unique to each website or app, and they are stored securely on the user’s device, rather than being transmitted across the internet.
The adoption of Passkeys gained momentum throughout 2023 but was slower than I expected. Apple integrated Passkeys into its macOS Ventura and iOS 16 operating systems, while Chrome 104 became the first version of Google Chrome to support Passkeys. Microsoft also expressed its commitment to supporting Passkeys, announcing plans to bring the standard to Windows and other platforms. Now all websites and Apps need to implement the standard.
As we move into 2024, I expect the development and adoption of Passkeys to accelerate. With the backing of major tech giants and its inherent security benefits, Passkeys are poised to revolutionize online authentication and pave the way for a password-free future.
Here’s a link to the original article.
🎯 It’s time to build your digital twin
One of the key moments for this technology was the interview between Lex Fridman and Mark Zuckerberg, taking place in the Metaverse
Here we saw a glimpse of what the potential of this technology will have.
For the interview, they used a technology called Pixel Codec Avatars.
to make their digital versions of themselves which right now is a lengthy (and unavailable) process. But Meta is currently working on a solution that will allow you to scan yourself, your facial impressions, and your voice in minutes with your cellphone to create a digital me.
if you want to nerd a bit, you can go ahead and create a version of yourself in the application: metahuman. It takes a bit of learning and practice but it’s doable and takes a few hours.
In the meantime, companies like Synthesia and Heygen have now made it super easy to create your own avatar for use in videos. So, you don´t have to appear in front of the camera to make a personal video.
We’re still getting started, but software solutions will appear to make this as easy as taking a photo of yourself. So, stay tuned for this in ´24.
Here’s a link to the original article.
🎯 One step closer to AGI
This was an easy one.
Open AI´s GPT 4, Google’s Gemini, Anthropic with Amazon’s backing, and Europe’s Mistral are all competing in the race to deliver the most advanced Generative Pre-Trained Transformer. The competitive landscape is poised to expand even further in 2024.
We even witnessed a Hollywood-worthy drama when Sam Altman was fired and re-hired within a week. Rumors say that this was caused by an AI breakthrough that apparently was kept secret from the Board and that, if rumors hold true, could propel OpenAI to unprecedented heights in the quest for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). For a closer examination of the AI breakthrough that could redefine our approach to machine intelligence, check out my previous article about the intricacies of Q* and its implications for the future of AI.
The speed at which AI is developing is breathtaking. When we will reach AGI is still an open question, some say that there now is a 50% chance that it will happen in this decade.
I will keep a close eye on the development of AI and write more about it in my upcoming predictions for 2024.
Here’s a link to the original article.
🎯 The impression recession
The battle for impressions is certainly heating up.
In 2023 we witnessed a collapse of Twitter — now X, due to the Elon Musk take-over and his radical opinions. At the DealBook conference in November he went as far as to tell advertisers to “Go F*** yourself” but at the same time warned that an advertiser boycott could kill Twitter/X.
This led to Meta launching a competitor called Threads — now also available in Europe. With + 100 million users so far, Zuckerberg is confident that Threads will reach the goal of 1 billion users.
But right now, it´s still ad-free. Son no way for advertisers to drive traffic here.
The EU Digital Services Act finally went into force in August. This put further pressure and restrictions on large Social Media platforms, making a lot of things illegal, like consumer manipulation through Dark Patterns (yes, that´s a thing).
When it comes to gaining search impressions, Google launched an early version of Search Generative Experience in 2023, and that scared a lot of companies depending on SEO traffic, because Google’s new model basically delivers everything in a box, so you don´t have to scroll down and look for links.
So all in all, 2023 erased a lot of traffic-generating impressions and made life harder for companies looking for third-party websites to drive traffic.
Here’s a link to the original article.
⚠️ Are we ready for Bio Printing?
3D bioprinting, the domain where cells and biomaterials come together to create tissues and organs, is on the path to transforming the healthcare industry.
While this is still early days, the investment in the area is growing rapidly.
We saw several technical breakthroughs in 2023:
Scientists at Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine have created a portable skin bioprinter that can be brought to patients’ bedsides to heal non-healing wounds. The printer can scan the wound area and 3D print skin in the different layers directly onto the affected surface.
The next step in bioprinting and implanting full organs is being pursued by Researchers at Stanford University. They are undertaking a groundbreaking endeavor to bioprint a human heart and implant it into a pig. This ambitious project aims to demonstrate the feasibility of using bioprinting to create complex organs that can function in the human body.
The development of novel bio-inks, the materials used to print tissues and organs, has been a pivotal aspect of bioprinting’s progress. Bioinks have evolved to exhibit improved biocompatibility and cell viability, ensuring that the cells can survive and proliferate within the printed constructs. This improved functionality has enabled the creation of more durable and functional bioprinted tissues, paving the way for potential clinical applications.
However, the commercial use cases, I predicted for 2023 didn’t unfold to the degree I expected.
Here’s a link to the original article.
⛔️ Sit back and relax — The Future of Autonomous Driving is finally here
In my predictions for 2023, I leaned forward and expected Full Self Driving to be released by the end of the year. Elon still has a few days to make the public release of V12 (it has been released to employees of Tesla by the end of November). But I don’t see it happening now.
And at the same time, the technology has experienced some major setbacks in 2023.
In December, Tesla had to recall Over 2 million cars due to Autopilot concerns.
The driverless auto company Cruise, which I also wrote about, had to withdraw their driverless fleet in San Francisco, laying off 900 employees, leading to the resignation of the CEO Kyle Vogt.
Waymo, the other robotaxi company, originally backed by Google, was quick to step in and fill the void. The recently released data shows that their cars are almost 7 times less likely than human drivers to be involved in a crash resulting in an injury.
Meanwhile, things keep heating up in China with more car Brands talking about delivering NOA, (Navigation on Autopilot) and more cities to allow driverless cars in the street.
But 2023 didn’t become the year of full autonomy in cars, maybe 2024 will.
Here’s a link to the original article.
2023: AI — and all the rest
It’s a wrap. Here you have the full update for 2023. Once again a mixture of mostly hits but also a few misses, but one area stood out and will continue to do so.
2024 will be full of AI breakthroughs and surprises. I am done compiling my list of predictions for the year to come, so stay tuned for more articles about the most interesting digital topics we will all be talking about in 2024.
